How Often and Why Do Military Coups Usher in Civilian Rule? Coups, Post-Coup Elections and Autocratic Resilience in the Post-Cold War World
Drawing on the literature on autocratic resilience and the logic of fuzzy-set theoretical models, the article examines the political consequences of all post-1989 military coups. It analyses the extent to which juntas remain or withdraw from power in the aftermath of a military coup. While some claim that post-Cold War coups have a higher propensity to usher in democratization, a case-sensitive analysis finds little reason to be enthusiastic about the political outcomes of coups. It finds a high degree of citizens involvement in civil society organizations and the absence of social tensions to be necessary and sufficient conditions for military withdrawal. Results for cases in which the armed forces remain in power indicate that in almost all cases the outcome is a foregone conclusion as the armed forces are not receptive to pressure by outside or domestic actors.